The Indian stock market ended the week on a cautious note, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex retreating by 0.70% for the week ended July 4. This dip broke a two-week gaining streak, driven largely by profit-taking and investor anxiety ahead of crucial economic events. As we move into the coming week, market participants are closely eyeing several high-stakes triggers likely to dictate the short-term trend. In this Dalal Street Week Ahead, developments like the India-US trade deal, Q1 FY26 earnings season, monsoon progress, global cues, and the US Federal Reserve’s policy expectations will be in sharp focus.
In this detailed market preview, let’s unpack the five major factors investors should track in the Dalal Street Week Ahead to navigate potential market volatility.
1️⃣ India-US Trade Deal: Market’s Biggest Flashpoint
One of the most significant catalysts for the Dalal Street Week Ahead is the much-anticipated trade agreement between India and the United States. Despite months of negotiations, there’s still no final clarity on the deal’s outcome. The market is particularly sensitive to this issue as US President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline to conclude a deal looms large.
Reports suggest Indian negotiators returned from Washington on Friday without securing a final pact. India, meanwhile, has proposed retaliatory tariffs under WTO norms, adding further uncertainty. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that India will not sign a rushed agreement unless it aligns fully with national interests.
Analysts believe a breakthrough could immediately lift sentiment in export-heavy sectors such as IT, pharmaceuticals, and auto components. On the flip side, a continued stalemate may trigger fresh volatility. As Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking noted, “The outcome of the trade talks is the biggest event in the Dalal Street Week Ahead and will significantly shape short-term market direction.”
2️⃣ Q1FY26 Earnings Season Kicks Off
Corporate India’s financial report card for the April-June quarter will start rolling in during the Dalal Street Week Ahead, beginning with IT heavyweights and FMCG majors. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Tata Elxsi are scheduled to announce their results on July 10, followed by DMart on July 11.
Investors will be keenly watching growth guidance, management commentaries, and margin outlooks amid a mixed global demand environment. Experts say the performance of IT firms will particularly matter, as it sets the tone for the rest of the earnings season.
Market watchers believe a strong earnings print can offset geopolitical and trade-related worries. InCred Equities pointed out, “The earnings season beginning in the Dalal Street Week Ahead could bring much-needed stability to Indian markets if key sectors like IT and financials deliver in line or better-than-expected numbers.”
3️⃣ Monsoon Progress: An Agriculture and Market Driver
Another crucial trigger in the Dalal Street Week Ahead will be the ongoing progress of the southwest monsoon. This year, India received 8.9% above-normal rainfall in June 2025 — the earliest complete coverage since 2020. The healthy monsoon has boosted kharif crop sowing, which saw an 11% year-on-year increase.
A continued good spell of rainfall can positively impact rural demand, agro-chemical stocks, and FMCG companies. Additionally, sectors linked to agricultural equipment, fertilizers, and rural financing could witness improved prospects.
“The market’s resilience in mid and small-cap segments last week partly reflects optimism over strong monsoon progress, a theme that will remain central in the Dalal Street Week Ahead,” said a note from InCred Equities.
4️⃣ Global Market Cues and FOMC Minutes
Global market trends will significantly influence investor sentiment in the Dalal Street Week Ahead, especially with the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s latest meeting set to be released. Traders globally are closely following the Fed’s commentary on inflation, interest rate trajectory, and the potential impact of US tariff policies.
While recent jobs data has been resilient, suggesting a delay in rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about inflation pressures from trade tariffs are keeping markets edgy. Analysts anticipate that the Fed minutes will offer fresh clues about the timing of policy easing, with a potential rate cut now pushed towards September.
“The Fed minutes, coupled with ongoing trade tension, make the Dalal Street Week Ahead a highly eventful period for global equities and currency markets alike,” Mishra of Religare Broking added.
5️⃣ Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) and Market Volatility
Foreign fund flows remained negative over the past week, with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turning cautious amid global uncertainties. Profit-taking and geopolitical concerns weighed on sentiments, leading to capital outflows from Indian equities.
The Dalal Street Week Ahead will see if FIIs resume buying interest, especially if trade negotiations between India and the US show progress or if early Q1 earnings surprise positively. On the contrary, a protracted impasse in trade talks and weak results could trigger a fresh bout of selling pressure.
Additionally, volatility is expected to persist with India VIX remaining elevated. Traders should prepare for sharp swings in index heavyweights like Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Tata Motors.
How Broader Markets Are Positioned for the Dalal Street Week Ahead
Interestingly, while the benchmark indices slipped last week, the midcap and smallcap segments displayed resilience. The Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.50% while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.30%, extending gains for a second straight week.
Market experts expect this outperformance to continue in the Dalal Street Week Ahead if Q1 earnings from mid-sized companies show healthy growth and rural consumption indicators remain strong.
What Should Investors Do in the Dalal Street Week Ahead?
Given the number of high-impact triggers, experts advise investors to adopt a stock-specific, sector-rotational strategy in the Dalal Street Week Ahead. IT, agri-based, select auto, and FMCG counters are expected to remain in focus.
Ajit Mishra suggested, “While markets may remain volatile, any interim correction can be viewed as a buying opportunity in fundamentally strong sectors poised to benefit from trade breakthroughs, strong monsoon, and robust earnings.”
Conclusion
To sum up, the Dalal Street Week Ahead promises a highly eventful and potentially volatile period for Indian equities. The India-US trade deal deadline, Q1 earnings, monsoon updates, global Fed commentary, and foreign fund flows will collectively steer market sentiment.
A favorable outcome on trade talks coupled with positive earnings surprises can trigger a rally, while prolonged uncertainty may keep indices range-bound. Market participants should stay agile, monitor headlines, and look for stock-specific opportunities in this action-packed Dalal Street Week Ahead.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. The views and market projections expressed are those of individual analysts and brokerage firms, not of Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified financial advisors or registered experts before making any investment decisions. Financial markets are subject to risks, and conditions can change rapidly based on multiple factors. Always exercise due diligence.