Indian Stock Market Weekly Update: Volatility Looms as Sensex, Nifty 50 Slide Over 1%
The Indian Stock Market experienced a turbulent week ending June 13, 2025, as geopolitical tensions, foreign capital outflows, and global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Both the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices declined by more than 1%, sparking concerns over whether the current market correction could continue in the coming weeks.
Indian Stock Market Weekly Performance
The benchmark indices of the Indian Stock Market saw a significant downturn last week. The Nifty 50 index fell by 1.14%, while the Sensex registered a steeper loss of 1.30%. The banking sector faced even sharper declines, with the Nifty Bank index dropping 1.9% over the week.
In the broader markets, the BSE Midcap index dropped 0.90%, while the BSE Smallcap index recorded a marginal fall of 0.13%. Several blue-chip stocks contributed to the market drag. Companies such as Adani Ports, Power Grid, Titan Company, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank saw their share prices fall between 3% and 5%.
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, explained, “Markets remained under pressure and declined by over a per cent during the week, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions and mixed global cues. After starting the week on a subdued note, indices gradually drifted lower amid increased volatility and finally settled near the week’s low.”
Factors Behind the Fall in Indian Stock Market
The current decline in the Indian Stock Market is primarily attributed to three major factors:
- Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating conflicts in the Middle East and concerns over global security have rattled investors. Any disruption in crude oil supply or trade routes directly impacts the Indian economy, given its reliance on imported oil.
- Foreign Capital Outflows: Uncertainty surrounding US interest rate decisions and global inflation data has prompted foreign institutional investors (FIIs) to pull money out of the Indian Stock Market.
- Tariff and Trade Worries: Global trade tensions, particularly concerning tariffs and supply chain disruptions, continue to influence market volatility.
What Lies Ahead for the Indian Stock Market?
Looking ahead, market experts predict that volatility will continue in the Indian Stock Market, driven by both international and domestic factors. The upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision is one of the most closely watched global events that could shape market direction.
Mishra commented, “Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain volatile amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and crucial central bank meetings. The US Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision will be closely tracked, as market participants look for clarity on the timing and magnitude of potential rate cuts.”
On the domestic front, the Indian Stock Market will keep a close eye on the progress of the monsoon, movement in crude oil prices, WPI inflation data, and FII trends. All these factors play a crucial role in determining market sentiment in the near term.
Technical Analysis: Nifty 50 and Sensex
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 has shown signs of weakness, closing below the crucial 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted, “On the weekly charts, Nifty formed a long bearish candle and is currently trading below the 20-day SMA, which is largely negative.”
Athawale explained that unless the Nifty 50 crosses above the 20-day SMA or 24,850 level, weak sentiment is likely to persist. “On the downside, the market could retest the 24,500 mark, a breach of which could accelerate selling pressure and potentially drag the index to the 50-day SMA around 24,300,” he added.
On the flip side, a breakout above 24,750 could spark a pullback rally, pushing the index towards 24,950–25,000 levels. As of now, the Indian Stock Market remains in a vulnerable position with technical indicators suggesting caution.
Nifty Bank Outlook
The banking sector, represented by the Nifty Bank index, also showed weakness last week. Athawale pointed out a key support range between 55,000 and 55,200. A fall below this zone may push the index toward the 50-day SMA around 54,500.
Conversely, if the index holds above 55,000, there could be a bounce back toward 56,100–56,300. A decisive move above 56,500 will be required to revive bullish momentum in the financial space.
Ajit Mishra also observed that the Nifty 50 has re-entered a consolidation range. A clear move beyond the 24,400–25,200 zone will be needed to establish the next directional trend in the Indian Stock Market.
“In case of a breakdown, the 24,000 level is expected to act as crucial support, whereas a breakout above 25,200 could trigger a sustained rally toward the 25,600 mark,” Mishra added.
Sectoral Performance in the Indian Stock Market
Several sectors underperformed last week:
- Banking: ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Shriram Finance fell sharply
- Metals: Tata Steel posted a decline amid global commodity price fluctuations
- Consumer: Hindustan Unilever and Tata Consumer slipped on weak demand outlook
However, defensives like IT and FMCG witnessed relatively better performance, offering some stability to the Indian Stock Market.
Key Events to Watch This Week
For investors tracking the Indian Stock Market, here are the major events that could impact market movement this week:
- US Federal Reserve Policy Statement
- WPI Inflation Data Release
- Progress of the Indian Monsoon
- Movement in Crude Oil Prices
- FII and DII Flow Trends
Investor Strategy: What Should You Do?
In light of the recent correction in the Indian Stock Market, investors are advised to stay cautious. Avoid aggressive buying until there’s more clarity from global central banks and geopolitical developments. For long-term investors, dips in fundamentally strong sectors like IT, pharma, and consumer goods may offer good entry opportunities.
Short-term traders should keep a close watch on the 24,000–25,200 range for Nifty 50 and 54,500–56,500 range for Bank Nifty. Breaches or breakouts in these zones could indicate the next phase of market movement.
Conclusion: Indian Stock Market Faces Uncertain Path
The Indian Stock Market ended last week on a weak note, with major indices shedding over 1%. Global headwinds, central bank uncertainty, and domestic macro data are likely to keep volatility high. Technical charts suggest further downside if support levels fail to hold.
However, disciplined investors who focus on quality and long-term growth potential may find opportunities amid the turbulence. As always, consult certified financial advisors and stay updated on economic indicators before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.