In an era increasingly defined by geopolitical rivalries and technological competition, The War on Metals has emerged as a central front in the struggle between the United States and China. At the heart of this conflict lies an often-overlooked set of resources—rare earth elements. These 17 metals, though used in minute quantities, play an outsized role in powering everything from smartphones and electric vehicles to wind turbines and advanced military hardware like fighter jets and precision-guided weapons.
As trade tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, The War on Metals has taken on urgent significance. The global economy’s deep reliance on Chinese-controlled rare earth supplies exposes a critical vulnerability, one that has far-reaching implications for national security, industrial competitiveness, and technological sovereignty.
The Rise of China’s Rare Earth Dominance
China’s dominance in The War on Metals is no accident. It is the product of a meticulously planned industrial strategy dating back to the early 1990s. Chinese producers, backed by government policy, flooded global markets with low-cost rare earth exports. This strategy systematically undercut competitors, forcing many Western companies to shutter operations.
A prominent casualty was the Mountain Pass mine in California, once the largest rare earth producer outside China. Its closure in 2015 marked a key milestone in China’s ascendancy, and by then, Beijing had seized control of nearly the entire global supply chain. Today, China is responsible for around 60% of rare earth mining, 85% of processing capacity, and a staggering 90% of permanent magnet production.
This vertically integrated system has given Beijing enormous leverage in The War on Metals. One vivid demonstration of this power came during the 2010 territorial spat with Japan, when China abruptly cut rare earth exports. The result? Prices of certain rare earth elements surged by over 600%, sending shockwaves through global markets.
American Tariffs and Their Limits
The Biden administration has responded to the escalating War on Metals by imposing significant tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and rare earth-based products like permanent magnets. These measures aim to reduce American dependency on China and stimulate domestic production. However, there is an inherent paradox in this approach.
Even as tariffs target Chinese goods, the U.S. remains deeply intertwined with Chinese rare earth supply chains. For instance, electric vehicles produced in America still rely heavily on components derived from Chinese rare earths. The situation is even more precarious in the defense sector. The F-35 fighter jet and numerous precision-guided weapons are still dependent on Chinese-sourced materials.
Thus, The War on Metals reveals a strategic conundrum: efforts to decouple from China clash with the reality that vital U.S. industries are still reliant on Beijing for critical inputs.
Reviving Domestic Production: Challenges and Opportunities
One of the major responses to The War on Metals has been the attempt to revive domestic rare earth production in the United States. The Mountain Pass mine has reopened, but the project’s capabilities remain limited. While it can extract rare earth ore, the refining process still takes place in China, due to the lack of domestic facilities. This dependency undermines the broader goal of supply chain independence.
Moreover, American rare earth ventures face substantial cost disadvantages compared to their Chinese counterparts. These challenges include stricter environmental regulations, higher labor costs, and the absence of a mature rare earth ecosystem. In The War on Metals, these factors act as significant deterrents to meaningful competition with China.
Global Collaboration as the Way Forward
To win The War on Metals, the United States cannot act alone. The complexity of rare earth supply chains requires a coordinated, multinational approach. Enhanced collaboration with allies—such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and the European Union—can help establish alternate supply routes and reduce dependence on China.
Countries like Australia already possess significant rare earth reserves, and partnerships with them could accelerate the development of secure mining and processing infrastructure. Likewise, joint ventures for rare earth refining facilities in the U.S. or allied countries could fill critical gaps in the value chain.
Building Strategic Resilience
Another critical aspect of responding to The War on Metals is strategic stockpiling. The U.S. and its allies must expand reserves of vital rare earth elements to guard against sudden supply disruptions. The 2010 episode with Japan remains a cautionary tale of how quickly access to these resources can be weaponized.
Streamlining permitting processes and fast-tracking environmental reviews for rare earth projects can also reduce the time and cost associated with bringing new mines online. Importantly, these measures must strike a balance between environmental stewardship and industrial urgency.
Investments in rare earth recycling technologies can also offer long-term solutions. By creating a circular economy around rare earths—where materials from old electronics, electric motors, and defense equipment are recovered and reused—nations can reduce the need for primary mining while addressing ecological concerns.
The Strategic Stakes
At its core, The War on Metals is not merely a trade dispute—it is a contest for technological dominance and national security. Rare earth elements are essential to every major innovation of the 21st century. Whether it’s artificial intelligence, renewable energy, or modern warfare, control over these resources translates into strategic power.
The failure to recognize this dynamic in the past allowed China to entrench its dominance. Correcting this oversight will require years of investment, diplomacy, and innovation. Tariffs, while a useful tool, are only a small piece of the puzzle in The War on Metals.
Conclusion: A Call for Long-Term Strategy
The War on Metals has thrust rare earth elements into the geopolitical spotlight. As the U.S. and China navigate a turbulent relationship, these minerals have moved from being industrial commodities to instruments of strategic power. The global economy’s dependence on China for rare earths represents a structural vulnerability that cannot be addressed overnight.
But with coordinated international action, a commitment to domestic capability building, and a strong push for sustainable innovation, the balance of power in The War on Metals can shift. It’s a long game, one that will demand patience, vision, and collaboration across public and private sectors.
Only then can the U.S. and its allies hope to secure their interests in a world where metals have become weapons—and supply chains, battlegrounds.